NBA games

TOR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
130–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR30312940130
IND28283135122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home IND
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 24 2 5
Scottie Barnes S 38 21 12 12
Immanuel Quickley S 35 19 6 2
Gradey Dick 23 18 5 2
Jakob Poeltl S 22 15 10 4
Ochai Agbaji 20 13 2 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 11 5 2
Kelly Olynyk 23 7 2 5
Bruce Brown 16 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 39 34 9 5
Pascal Siakam S 37 27 9 6
Myles Turner S 26 16 11 1
Andrew Nembhard S 27 11 0 1
T.J. McConnell 20 10 4 4
Jalen Smith 14 9 5 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 9 0 7
Obi Toppin 19 4 3 0
Ben Sheppard 17 2 0 0
Jarace Walker 5 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:56 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
11%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.9 7.2 4.0
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.5 6.4 4.5
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.7 8.5 6.5
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.0 3.9 9.1
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.6 3.9 5.2
6 Myles Turner IND 18.0 6.6 2.1
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.0 5.2 2.8
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.7 10.5 2.4
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.1 3.0 1.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 3.2 4.7
11 Jalen Smith IND 10.8 5.9 1.3
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.8 3.1 5.7
13 Bruce Brown TOR 9.5 3.3 2.4
14 Gradey Dick TOR 9.2 2.6 1.2
15 Kelly Olynyk TOR 8.2 4.3 3.0
16 Obi Toppin IND 7.4 3.3 1.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.1 4.6 1.1
18 Jordan Nwora TOR 5.8 2.6 1.3
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 1.8 0.8
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.1 2.0 1.0
21 Doug McDermott IND 5.0 1.5 1.0
22 Jarace Walker IND 4.8 2.1 1.0
23 Chris Boucher TOR 4.5 3.9 0.5
24 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.4 1.0 0.6
25 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.4 1.0
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.4 0.4
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.8 0.8 0.4
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.