NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
111–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27312627111
NY29333021113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 32 5 8
Quentin Grimes 24 14 3 2
Jaden Ivey S 24 14 2 3
Simone Fontecchio S 33 12 3 1
Jalen Duren S 31 11 16 4
Malachi Flynn 12 8 3 2
Ausar Thompson S 36 7 4 3
Evan Fournier 20 7 0 1
James Wiseman 17 4 6 1
Tosan Evbuomwan 8 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 35 1 12
Josh Hart S 42 23 8 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 21 3 4
Bojan Bogdanovic 22 13 6 1
Alec Burks 14 7 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 6 8 4
Precious Achiuwa S 34 4 11 1
Jericho Sims 20 2 6 2
Miles McBride 10 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Precious Achiuwa · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Precious Achiuwa NY
11%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
10%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.7 3.6 7.5
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY 23.9 4.3 3.9
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.2 4.8 7.9
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.7 3.4 4.2
5 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 18.8 3.2 2.4
6 Precious Achiuwa NY 15.5 10.3 1.9
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.6 11.3 2.5
8 Josh Hart NY 14.3 9.5 5.4
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.3 5.8 2.2
10 Alec Burks NY 12.0 3.2 1.9
11 Simone Fontecchio DET 11.3 3.9 1.8
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.8 5.7 1.8
13 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.4 7.9 2.2
14 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.4 1.6
15 Quentin Grimes DET 8.2 2.8 1.5
16 Evan Fournier DET 8.1 2.5 1.1
17 James Wiseman DET 5.0 3.4 0.8
18 Jericho Sims NY 4.9 5.2 1.0
19 Shake Milton DET 4.1 2.1 1.0
20 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.0 2.0 1.1
21 Malachi Flynn DET 3.6 1.3 0.9
22 Jacob Toppin NY 3.5 1.8 0.7
23 Mike Muscala DET 2.8 1.5 0.5
24 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 2.7 2.0 0.5
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.5 1.2 0.6
26 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.8 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.