NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
123–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC25333134123
LAC28232927107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 33 6 7
Harrison Barnes S 36 22 2 1
Domantas Sabonis S 36 17 15 12
Kevin Huerter S 25 15 3 2
Malik Monk 28 12 2 5
Keegan Murray S 37 11 8 1
Davion Mitchell 18 6 0 1
Chris Duarte 16 4 2 0
Trey Lyles 11 3 3 0
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 37 21 2 2
James Harden S 35 20 5 8
Kawhi Leonard S 36 20 8 3
Ivica Zubac S 33 16 6 2
Terance Mann S 39 14 6 4
Russell Westbrook 18 8 4 2
Daniel Theis 14 8 6 1
Brandon Boston 1 0 0 0
P.J. Tucker 5 0 0 0
Amir Coffey 20 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 6-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
9%
9 James Harden LAC
9%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
35%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.4 4.7 6.2
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.7 5.6 4.1
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.2 13.4 9.9
4 Malik Monk SAC 20.8 4.2 4.5
5 James Harden LAC 20.5 6.3 6.8
6 Norman Powell LAC 13.8 3.0 1.6
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.7 3.3 1.2
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.5 3.3 2.8
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.1 3.2 4.4
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.7 4.3 1.9
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.4 2.5 1.6
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.3 8.7 1.6
13 Terance Mann LAC 9.5 3.9 1.9
14 Trey Lyles SAC 8.2 3.5 1.1
15 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.3 5.7 1.3
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.2 1.5 1.4
17 Daniel Theis LAC 4.8 2.7 1.1
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.5 1.9 1.0
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 1.9 0.8
20 Brandon Boston LAC 3.2 1.3 0.6
21 JaVale McGee SAC 2.8 2.3 0.3
22 Keon Ellis SAC 2.4 0.9 0.5
23 Bones Hyland LAC 2.4 0.5 0.8
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.2 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.