NBA games

CHA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
93–80
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2423232393
POR1816252180

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home POR
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Richards S 33 21 10 0
Miles Bridges S 40 18 10 1
Brandon Miller S 38 17 4 1
Cody Martin S 31 11 6 10
Vasilije Micic 24 11 2 7
Tre Mann S 25 6 2 3
Grant Williams 24 5 2 1
Bryce McGowens 21 4 4 1
JT Thor 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 37 26 19 2
Jerami Grant S 32 15 2 5
Anfernee Simons S 35 10 4 0
Dalano Banton 9 7 6 0
Duop Reath 13 7 1 0
Jabari Walker 18 6 5 0
Kris Murray S 33 6 9 4
Ashton Hagans 11 3 3 1
Toumani Camara S 18 0 3 1
Justin Minaya 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tre Mann · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Tre Mann makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
7 Nick Richards CHA
9%
8 Kris Murray POR
7%
9 Cody Martin CHA
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 24.0 6.5 4.9
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.8 4.0 6.6
3 Jerami Grant POR 23.3 4.3 4.2
4 Brandon Miller CHA 22.5 4.8 3.3
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 18.2 4.2 6.2
6 Deandre Ayton POR 17.8 11.2 2.3
7 Grant Williams CHA 12.2 4.1 1.8
8 Nick Richards CHA 11.4 9.3 1.5
9 Cody Martin CHA 10.9 4.3 4.8
10 Toumani Camara POR 8.5 4.3 1.6
11 Jabari Walker POR 8.4 6.7 1.2
12 Tre Mann CHA 8.0 3.4 3.4
13 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.1 1.8 4.6
14 Duop Reath POR 6.5 3.1 1.0
15 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.4 2.5 1.0
16 Seth Curry CHA 6.0 1.9 1.2
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.0 2.3 1.6
18 Dalano Banton POR 5.7 1.8 1.8
19 Kris Murray POR 5.4 3.0 1.1
20 Ashton Hagans POR 5.2 2.0 3.1
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.8 0.9 1.1
22 Davis Bertans CHA 3.5 1.1 0.7
23 Marques Bolden CHA 2.7 3.0 0.7
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.7 1.7 0.7
25 JT Thor CHA 2.4 1.5 0.4
26 Taze Moore POR 1.9 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.