NBA games

SA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
109–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA18213535109
UTAH32313035128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home UTAH
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 34 27 9 5
Victor Wembanyama S 27 22 10 2
Zach Collins 21 17 8 3
Tre Jones S 30 15 3 9
Malaki Branham 28 14 2 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 14 8 1 1
Cedi Osman 15 3 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 20 2 6 4
Jeremy Sochan S 29 1 4 3
Keldon Johnson 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 32 26 7 4
Jordan Clarkson 33 22 2 10
John Collins S 27 20 8 1
Collin Sexton S 27 16 2 10
Walker Kessler 19 10 6 2
Taylor Hendricks S 26 9 3 0
Kris Dunn 20 8 2 1
Keyonte George S 30 7 3 6
Brice Sensabaugh 16 5 3 1
Omer Yurtseven 3 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
15%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
7 Tre Jones SA
8%
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.2 10.5 5.6
2 Devin Vassell SA 24.3 4.5 5.0
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.1 3.0 6.3
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.1 7.4 2.7
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.4 3.5 4.6
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.1 3.4 4.5
7 John Collins UTAH 16.1 10.5 2.2
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.1 8.1 2.8
9 Keldon Johnson SA 13.8 4.7 2.3
10 Tre Jones SA 12.1 3.8 6.4
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.6 7.5 1.4
12 Zach Collins SA 7.9 4.0 2.3
13 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 7.9 1.5 2.7
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.7 3.2 3.6
15 Malaki Branham SA 7.5 2.4 2.0
16 Blake Wesley SA 7.0 2.0 3.5
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.9 3.8 1.9
18 Cedi Osman SA 6.2 2.5 1.7
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.9 3.6 0.9
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 2.3 0.8
21 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.3 1.2 0.6
22 Devonte' Graham SA 3.2 1.3 0.9
23 Johnny Juzang UTAH 2.7 1.0 1.2
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.8 0.7 0.6
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 1.6 0.7 0.4
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.5 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.