NBA games

DEN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
119–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30313028119
GS36252616103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home GS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 32 16 16
Jamal Murray S 36 27 4 3
Aaron Gordon S 33 17 6 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 13 2 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 9 7 1
Christian Braun 20 7 3 0
Zeke Nnaji 12 6 3 1
Peyton Watson 11 3 1 1
Reggie Jackson 16 3 0 2
Jay Huff 2 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 31 23 2 1
Stephen Curry S 32 20 1 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 25 19 6 3
Andrew Wiggins S 31 14 4 4
Draymond Green S 27 7 5 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 6 2 1
Lester Quinones 14 6 3 1
Dario Saric 9 4 4 2
Brandin Podziemski S 30 4 6 4
Moses Moody 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Layup (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 3-foot layup (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
56%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
28%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.4 11.9 10.2
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.5 4.3 5.7
3 Jamal Murray DEN 19.7 4.2 6.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.8 6.7 2.3
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.4 5.4 3.7
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.5 6.7 3.7
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.7 6.9 4.9
8 Klay Thompson GS 13.5 4.1 1.9
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.7 4.7 2.0
10 Draymond Green GS 11.3 8.0 5.3
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.5 2.6 3.7
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.8 2.7 1.6
13 Peyton Watson DEN 8.2 4.4 1.3
14 Moses Moody GS 6.8 2.6 0.9
15 Lester Quinones GS 6.6 2.9 1.7
16 Christian Braun DEN 6.4 3.7 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.6 0.9
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.9 1.1
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.9 1.6 1.0
20 Dario Saric GS 4.9 2.7 2.3
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.9 3.8 0.8
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 2.3 0.9
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.3 4.2 1.1
24 Jay Huff DEN 3.1 1.6 0.6
25 Braxton Key DEN 2.6 1.4 0.6
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 1.0 0.7
27 Usman Garuba GS 2.4 1.4 0.5
28 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.2 2.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.