NBA games

CHI @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28292433114
NO21392224106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NO
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 24 6 7
Nikola Vucevic S 34 22 13 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 21 3 8
Coby White S 37 16 7 3
Alex Caruso S 32 12 3 2
Jevon Carter 20 8 3 2
Andre Drummond 14 7 8 1
Dalen Terry 15 2 4 3
Terry Taylor 7 2 2 0
Julian Phillips 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 39 22 3 6
Zion Williamson S 33 19 8 11
Herbert Jones S 39 15 3 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 28 14 17 0
Matt Ryan 19 14 4 0
Trey Murphy III S 37 9 10 2
Jordan Hawkins 15 8 1 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 11 3 0 0
Larry Nance Jr. 19 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Coby White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
3 Coby White CHI
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
19%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.8 5.7 6.1
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.3 4.6 5.0
3 Brandon Ingram NO 23.3 5.7 6.2
4 Coby White CHI 23.1 4.5 6.4
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.7 10.2 2.8
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.7 3.6 4.2
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.4 8.8 2.4
8 Herbert Jones NO 13.0 4.0 2.6
9 Trey Murphy III NO 11.2 4.0 1.4
10 Alex Caruso CHI 10.6 5.1 3.9
11 Andre Drummond CHI 9.0 9.5 0.8
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.7 2.1
13 Naji Marshall NO 6.8 3.1 1.8
14 Matt Ryan NO 6.5 2.2 1.1
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.4 4.5 2.0
16 Torrey Craig CHI 5.0 2.9 0.9
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 2.3 0.8
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.2 1.4 0.6
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.1 1.2 1.1
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.9 1.3
21 Onuralp Bitim CHI 3.6 0.9 0.5
22 Terry Taylor CHI 3.2 2.3 0.8
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 2.2 0.6
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.4 2.0 0.7
25 E.J. Liddell NO 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.