NBA games

OKC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
123–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31263036123
HOU34282127110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home HOU
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 36 5 7
Chet Holmgren S 33 29 8 7
Jalen Williams S 36 22 4 5
Luguentz Dort S 32 16 5 2
Cason Wallace 19 6 2 1
Jaylin Williams 12 5 5 1
Isaiah Joe 17 5 3 0
Josh Giddey S 23 2 9 5
Kenrich Williams 5 2 1 0
Aaron Wiggins 15 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 20 17 4
Fred VanVleet S 38 20 3 3
Alperen Sengun S 30 19 12 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 13 2 2
Cam Whitmore 17 12 3 0
Jalen Green S 32 11 7 4
Aaron Holiday 11 7 0 1
Amen Thompson 21 6 6 1
Jeff Green 16 2 0 1
Jock Landale 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:15 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 4.9 7.2
2 Jalen Williams OKC 21.7 4.4 5.8
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.9 9.3 5.1
4 Jalen Green HOU 17.9 4.8 4.3
5 Cam Whitmore HOU 16.8 4.4 1.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.4 8.3 2.2
7 Gordon Hayward OKC 14.8 4.7 4.1
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.6 9.8 3.4
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.5 4.3 6.1
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 3.9 2.0
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.4 7.0 1.6
12 Josh Giddey OKC 12.2 5.6 3.3
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.6 3.8 1.6
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.9 3.0 1.5
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.5 2.0 2.5
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 2.6 1.3
17 Jeff Green HOU 6.6 2.9 1.5
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.3 2.0 1.2
19 Bismack Biyombo OKC 5.9 6.2 1.4
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.8 1.6
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.5 1.0
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.7 1.1
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.7 1.9 0.7
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.6 1.9 0.7
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.4 3.2 1.0
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.