ORL @ ATL
NBA
State Farm Arena
·Final
92–109
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 22 | 29 | 19 | 22 | 92 |
| ATL | 19 | 26 | 38 | 26 | 109 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL
away
home
ATL
13%
87%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner S | 33 | 19 | 8 | 5 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. S | 34 | 18 | 10 | 1 |
| Cole Anthony | 30 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| Jalen Suggs S | 28 | 14 | 2 | 6 |
| Caleb Houstan | 21 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Black S | 27 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Markelle Fultz | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Joe Ingles | 19 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Moritz Wagner | 13 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goga Bitadze S | 19 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Bogdan Bogdanovic ·
Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Bogdan Bogdanovic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Dejounte Murray
ATL
13%
2
Saddiq Bey
ATL
12%
3
Onyeka Okongwu
ATL
11%
4
Franz Wagner
ORL
11%
5
Jalen Johnson
ATL
10%
6
Clint Capela
ATL
10%
7
Markelle Fultz
ORL
10%
8
Jalen Suggs
ORL
8%
9
Wendell Carter Jr.
ORL
8%
10
Caleb Houstan
ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
33%
Layup
24%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franz Wagner | ORL | 24.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| 2 | Dejounte Murray | ATL | 24.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 |
| 3 | Saddiq Bey | ATL | 16.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| 4 | Jalen Johnson | ATL | 16.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 |
| 5 | Bogdan Bogdanovic | ATL | 15.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 6 | De'Andre Hunter | ATL | 14.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 7 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL | 13.7 | 7.0 | 1.3 |
| 8 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| 9 | Jalen Suggs | ORL | 12.4 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 10 | Clint Capela | ATL | 10.8 | 9.8 | 1.0 |
| 11 | Moritz Wagner | ORL | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 |
| 12 | Cole Anthony | ORL | 9.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 13 | Markelle Fultz | ORL | 8.8 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| 14 | Jonathan Isaac | ORL | 6.7 | 6.1 | 1.0 |
| 15 | Anthony Black | ORL | 5.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Joe Ingles | ORL | 5.6 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| 17 | Bruno Fernando | ATL | 5.1 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| 18 | Garrison Mathews | ATL | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 19 | Goga Bitadze | ORL | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Kobe Bufkin | ATL | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 21 | Caleb Houstan | ORL | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 22 | Patty Mills | ATL | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Chuma Okeke | ORL | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 24 | Wesley Matthews | ATL | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.