NBA games

CLE @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
114–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE27283227114
WSH31232625105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home WSH
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 37 22 12 5
Evan Mobley S 29 21 6 1
Caris LeVert 28 18 12 8
Darius Garland S 33 17 2 7
Donovan Mitchell S 36 16 4 5
Georges Niang 17 8 4 0
Isaac Okoro 19 7 1 2
Max Strus S 27 3 3 5
Sam Merrill 6 2 2 1
Dean Wade 8 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole 38 31 5 5
Kyle Kuzma S 39 27 6 5
Landry Shamet S 37 15 5 2
Richaun Holmes 15 11 7 0
Marvin Bagley III S 33 9 10 2
Tyus Jones S 35 3 1 11
Bilal Coulibaly S 6 3 1 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 9 2 3 1
Jared Butler 12 2 0 2
Johnny Davis 16 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Max Strus makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Marvin Bagley III WSH
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Max Strus CLE
9%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
8 Landry Shamet WSH
8%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
29%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.5 5.7 6.4
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.1 6.0 3.2
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.0 12.2 2.3
4 Evan Mobley CLE 17.1 10.2 3.1
5 Darius Garland CLE 15.6 2.8 7.0
6 Corey Kispert WSH 15.2 3.6 2.4
7 Tyus Jones WSH 13.3 2.8 9.1
8 Jordan Poole WSH 13.1 3.6 4.7
9 Max Strus CLE 12.4 4.5 4.1
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.3 7.9 1.4
11 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.1 3.3 1.9
12 Caris LeVert CLE 11.0 4.1 5.2
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.8 4.0 1.7
14 Georges Niang CLE 7.5 3.1 1.2
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.6 3.6 1.1
16 Sam Merrill CLE 5.6 1.7 1.4
17 Landry Shamet WSH 5.6 1.9 1.0
18 Dean Wade CLE 5.2 3.3 0.9
19 Jared Butler WSH 4.9 1.2 1.6
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.4 2.8 1.0
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.1 2.3 1.1
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.8 2.9 0.7
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.3 2.4 0.7
24 Zhaire Smith CLE 3.0 2.0 0.8
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.3 0.7
26 Damian Jones CLE 2.6 1.8 0.6
27 Johnny Davis WSH 2.6 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.