NBA games

DAL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL32283120111
IND32353333133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home IND
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 33 33 6 6
Kyrie Irving S 32 29 6 2
Josh Green S 32 14 5 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 11 3 1
Daniel Gafford 19 8 5 0
Jaden Hardy 8 7 0 1
Dereck Lively II S 14 4 3 0
Maxi Kleber 25 3 1 1
P.J. Washington S 31 2 6 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 15 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 30 33 8 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 17 3 10
Andrew Nembhard S 33 15 3 2
Ben Sheppard 12 15 1 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 33 14 11 5
Pascal Siakam S 29 12 9 2
T.J. McConnell 19 12 0 7
Obi Toppin 19 8 2 4
Doug McDermott 12 3 2 1
Isaiah Jackson 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Josh Green DAL
7%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 32.5 10.2 9.4
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.9 5.5 5.6
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.1 6.1 4.3
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.3 3.9 8.6
5 Myles Turner IND 16.0 6.5 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.9 4.5 2.3
7 P.J. Washington DAL 13.8 6.0 2.1
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 12.8 3.6 2.0
9 Josh Green DAL 12.4 3.9 2.6
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.0 10.6 1.4
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 3.1 5.0
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 8.1 1.5
13 Jalen Smith IND 9.5 4.8 0.9
14 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 3.3 5.5
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.5 2.0 1.5
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 8.4 3.9 1.8
17 Obi Toppin IND 7.6 3.6 1.8
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.5 4.2 1.0
19 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.4 3.0 1.3
20 Doug McDermott IND 5.1 1.3 0.9
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.1 1.7 0.7
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 3.1 0.8
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.5 0.8
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.4 0.5
25 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.3 0.9
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.0 1.2 0.3
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.