NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
113–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28352723113
PHX45272328123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 28 7 12
Anthony Davis S 42 22 14 0
D'Angelo Russell S 37 20 3 7
Austin Reaves S 35 14 4 4
Rui Hachimura S 26 13 4 0
Taurean Prince 27 8 1 1
Max Christie 5 3 0 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 23 3 0 2
Jaxson Hayes 6 2 0 0
Skylar Mays 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 38 24 2 0
Kevin Durant S 39 22 5 7
Devin Booker S 38 21 3 9
Royce O'Neale S 37 20 9 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 37 18 22 7
Bol Bol 24 11 4 1
Saben Lee 9 5 3 2
Drew Eubanks 10 2 1 1
David Roddy 1 0 1 0
Josh Okogie 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes driving layup (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 D'Angelo Russell LAL
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
9 Drew Eubanks PHX
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.9 8.2 5.9
2 LeBron James LAL 25.5 7.0 8.6
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.2 4.1 6.3
4 Anthony Davis LAL 24.1 11.7 4.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 21.7 4.1 6.8
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.1 4.0 7.4
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.5 5.0 1.5
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.7 10.0 4.4
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.9 3.6 4.6
10 David Roddy PHX 10.4 4.4 2.3
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.3 3.8 1.7
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.4 4.3 2.1
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.7 2.2 4.9
14 Bol Bol PHX 8.2 5.1 1.0
15 Thaddeus Young PHX 7.6 5.1 2.1
16 Cam Reddish LAL 6.5 2.2 1.2
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.4 5.1 1.2
18 Max Christie LAL 6.1 2.7 1.2
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.8 4.7 0.9
20 Josh Okogie PHX 5.8 2.7 1.1
21 Saben Lee PHX 4.1 2.1 1.2
22 Theo Maledon PHX 3.9 1.5 1.6
23 Skylar Mays LAL 3.3 1.4 0.9
24 Nassir Little PHX 3.0 1.4 0.7
25 Dylan Windler LAL 2.8 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.