NBA games

MIL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
119–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL35342624119
PHI2127341698

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHI
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 30 12 9
Damian Lillard S 36 24 7 9
Malik Beasley S 32 20 2 1
Bobby Portis 19 17 5 1
Brook Lopez S 32 11 7 3
Pat Connaughton 22 7 5 1
AJ Green 4 3 0 0
Patrick Beverley 18 3 0 2
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 4 2 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 1 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 24 3 7
De'Anthony Melton 18 16 3 3
Paul Reed S 27 13 8 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. 29 12 9 2
Buddy Hield S 28 11 2 4
Tobias Harris S 31 8 8 0
Nicolas Batum S 17 6 1 0
Cameron Payne 8 3 1 0
Kyle Lowry 21 3 2 3
Ricky Council IV 7 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
20%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Paul Reed PHI
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Buddy Hield PHI
6%
9 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
5%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.0 9.9 7.6
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.0 4.6 5.5
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.3 4.3 6.9
4 Tobias Harris PHI 17.2 6.2 4.1
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.1 5.2 1.7
6 Buddy Hield PHI 15.9 3.8 4.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.3 6.9 1.9
8 Brook Lopez MIL 14.2 5.6 1.8
9 Malik Beasley MIL 11.9 3.8 1.8
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.4 3.5 2.0
11 Paul Reed PHI 9.6 8.4 1.4
12 Cameron Payne PHI 8.3 2.4 2.8
13 Jae Crowder MIL 8.2 3.8 2.0
14 Patrick Beverley MIL 7.5 3.1 3.5
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.4 4.1 2.2
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.3 3.3 3.6
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.1 2.9 0.8
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.9 4.0 2.6
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 5.8 2.3 1.3
20 Darius Bazley PHI 5.3 4.2 1.6
21 AJ Green MIL 4.4 1.2 0.6
22 Mo Bamba PHI 4.3 5.0 1.0
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.8 1.4 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.0 1.1 0.6
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.