NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30323519116
NY26322618102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 30 8 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 22 4 4
Jayson Tatum S 43 19 6 6
Derrick White S 32 13 3 6
Jrue Holiday S 35 12 1 6
Al Horford 26 10 7 0
Sam Hauser 10 6 3 0
Luke Kornet 10 2 2 0
Payton Pritchard 15 2 2 2
Jaden Springer 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 34 3 9
Josh Hart S 42 16 8 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 12 4 0
Miles McBride 16 11 3 1
Precious Achiuwa S 34 8 9 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 19 8 0 0
Alec Burks 19 7 3 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 6 7 4
Jacob Toppin 1 0 0 0
Jericho Sims 14 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Julius Randle NY
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Precious Achiuwa NY
10%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
6%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.1 3.9 7.0
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.3 7.6 6.4
3 Julius Randle NY 22.5 7.9 6.0
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.7 6.8 2.0
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.5 6.7 4.3
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 20.1 4.0 4.1
7 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 18.2 3.2 2.2
8 Derrick White BOS 16.4 3.5 4.7
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 14.4 9.4 1.7
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.7 4.1 5.3
11 Josh Hart NY 12.4 9.5 5.5
12 Alec Burks NY 11.1 3.3 1.7
13 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.0 8.6 1.9
14 Al Horford BOS 8.8 5.7 2.2
15 Miles McBride NY 8.7 2.0 1.5
16 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.8 2.5 1.6
17 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 2.2 1.1
18 Xavier Tillman BOS 7.4 4.2 2.0
19 Jaden Springer BOS 5.5 2.4 1.3
20 Jericho Sims NY 5.2 5.4 1.0
21 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 4.3 0.9
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.2 0.7
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.1 1.9 1.0
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.3 0.9 0.3
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.3 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.