NBA games

BKN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
86–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2223212086
MIN23192831101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIN
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 35 18 6 2
Mikal Bridges S 36 15 6 8
Nic Claxton S 30 12 7 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 11 9 0
Cameron Johnson 22 10 7 0
Dennis Schroder 28 9 1 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 12 4 7 0
Ben Simmons S 15 4 8 1
Lonnie Walker IV 15 3 1 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 15 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 29 8 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 28 9 4
Mike Conley S 30 14 3 3
Kyle Anderson S 31 12 9 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 7 2 1
Naz Reid 27 6 9 1
Monte Morris 18 5 2 4
Jordan McLaughlin 4 0 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 1-foot two point shot (Kyle Anderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
13%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
10%
8 Mike Conley MIN
9%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
52%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.7 5.6 5.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.4 7.2 2.6
3 Cam Thomas BKN 22.1 4.0 3.9
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.9 3.7 3.6
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 11.2 3.3 4.6
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.1 4.2 2.9
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.1 4.9 1.4
8 Nic Claxton BKN 10.8 9.2 1.7
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.7 3.2 1.9
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.4 3.5 5.6
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.8 2.7 2.3
12 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.7 1.8 1.6
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.6 5.3 1.5
14 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.2 3.3 3.2
15 Ben Simmons BKN 7.0 6.9 5.1
16 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 6.6 3.6 1.7
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.5 3.2 4.5
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.4 3.0 1.5
19 Monte Morris MIN 5.3 1.9 1.5
20 Trendon Watford BKN 4.6 1.7 0.8
21 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 4.2 2.0 0.6
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.6 0.9 0.9
23 Luka Garza MIN 2.3 0.7 0.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.