NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32332522112
DET30253024109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 29 15 5 3
Moritz Wagner 17 14 7 1
Jalen Suggs S 26 14 2 5
Franz Wagner S 32 14 5 3
Cole Anthony 21 13 3 7
Jonathan Isaac 20 12 6 0
Gary Harris S 25 12 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 11 10 2
Anthony Black 22 5 2 0
Goga Bitadze 8 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 31 26 7 4
Simone Fontecchio S 31 17 3 5
Jalen Duren S 33 16 11 3
Evan Fournier 19 13 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 21 8 2 0
Jaden Ivey S 34 8 0 7
Malachi Flynn 17 8 1 3
James Wiseman 15 5 4 2
Quentin Grimes 26 5 2 4
Troy Brown Jr. 13 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Simone Fontecchio DET
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
37%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
19%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 24.3 5.0 5.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.1 6.2 6.7
3 Jaden Ivey DET 21.1 4.0 4.2
4 Cade Cunningham DET 19.9 4.4 7.7
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.0 10.8 2.9
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.1 5.6 1.9
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.3 3.4 3.2
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.2 5.7 2.2
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.6 6.0 1.8
10 Simone Fontecchio DET 10.3 3.8 1.5
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.0 3.6 1.2
12 Cole Anthony ORL 8.8 3.4 2.8
13 Evan Fournier DET 8.0 2.4 1.1
14 Gary Harris ORL 6.8 2.1 1.7
15 Quentin Grimes DET 6.7 2.2 1.1
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 4.8 0.8
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.4 1.6 2.1
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.4 1.7 1.2
19 Shake Milton DET 5.0 2.3 1.3
20 James Wiseman DET 4.9 3.3 0.8
21 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.7 1.8 1.0
22 Malachi Flynn DET 3.2 1.2 0.7
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 0.8 0.4
24 Mike Muscala DET 2.8 1.4 0.5
25 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 2.6 2.0 0.5
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 0.9 0.4
27 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.1 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.