NBA games

SA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
118–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA26333128118
LAL30363126123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 27 10 8
Malaki Branham 23 17 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 34 15 13 5
Zach Collins 17 14 3 0
Keldon Johnson 29 14 2 3
Devin Vassell S 30 10 3 3
Tre Jones S 27 8 3 4
Julian Champagnie S 24 7 4 5
Blake Wesley 10 4 3 0
Cedi Osman 11 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 34 30 7 9
Anthony Davis S 29 28 13 0
D'Angelo Russell S 35 22 3 6
Rui Hachimura S 32 17 7 0
Austin Reaves S 33 10 5 9
Jaxson Hayes 19 8 4 0
Taurean Prince 19 5 4 3
Max Christie 13 3 2 0
Dylan Windler 1 0 0 0
Jalen Hood-Schifino 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Vassell SA
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
42%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.5 10.6 4.6
2 LeBron James LAL 25.7 6.7 8.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.3 12.0 4.9
4 Devin Vassell SA 23.6 4.4 5.1
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.9 4.0 7.5
6 Austin Reaves LAL 21.7 3.7 6.7
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.9 4.8 1.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 5.8 2.2
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.8 7.4 2.2
10 Tre Jones SA 11.8 3.6 6.1
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.6 3.7 1.6
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 10.0 2.2 5.0
13 Zach Collins SA 7.1 4.4 2.2
14 Malaki Branham SA 7.0 2.3 1.9
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.9 2.6 1.5
16 Blake Wesley SA 6.8 1.8 3.5
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.7 5.2 1.1
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.0 3.7 1.5
19 Max Christie LAL 6.0 2.5 1.2
20 Devonte' Graham SA 2.9 1.2 0.8
21 Dylan Windler LAL 2.9 1.2 0.8
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.7 1.2 0.7
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.2 1.5 0.4
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.