NBA games

DEN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
127–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25383232127
POR20282935112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home POR
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 34 12 1
Nikola Jokic S 35 29 15 14
Collin Gillespie 24 18 2 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 9 4 4
Reggie Jackson S 22 9 0 3
Peyton Watson 18 8 4 0
Aaron Gordon S 28 8 2 7
Zeke Nnaji 11 6 3 1
Christian Braun 20 3 2 4
Julian Strawther 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 37 25 2 4
Deandre Ayton S 35 22 10 3
Anfernee Simons S 36 21 3 8
Dalano Banton 20 14 1 3
Kris Murray S 35 9 8 2
Duop Reath 13 8 6 1
Toumani Camara S 24 6 6 2
Matisse Thybulle 20 3 2 2
Ashton Hagans 2 2 0 0
Jabari Walker 14 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
15%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
7 Jerami Grant POR
10%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.2 12.0 9.7
2 Anfernee Simons POR 24.1 3.9 6.1
3 Jerami Grant POR 21.8 4.2 3.5
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR 17.8 4.2 6.0
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.1 6.5 3.5
6 Deandre Ayton POR 17.0 10.9 2.1
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.0 6.3 2.1
8 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.1 2.8 3.2
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.7 2.6 1.6
10 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 4.3 1.5
11 Toumani Camara POR 7.6 3.5 1.1
12 Jabari Walker POR 7.3 6.5 0.9
13 Christian Braun DEN 6.3 3.7 1.2
14 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.9 1.1
15 Julian Strawther DEN 5.1 1.7 1.1
16 Duop Reath POR 4.9 2.3 0.8
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.6 1.5
18 Ashton Hagans POR 4.7 1.7 3.2
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 2.1 0.8
20 Dalano Banton POR 3.3 1.1 1.2
21 Jay Huff DEN 3.2 1.7 0.6
22 Kris Murray POR 3.2 2.0 0.7
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 1.1 0.8
24 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.3 0.7 0.5
25 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.2 2.7 0.3
26 Taze Moore POR 1.8 0.6 0.3
27 Braxton Key DEN 1.4 0.8 0.4
28 Justin Minaya POR 1.4 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.