NBA games

CHA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
84–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1514233284
GS2221302497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home GS
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 41 19 11 3
Nick Richards S 29 11 13 1
Brandon Miller S 31 11 3 5
Grant Williams 26 10 3 1
Vasilije Micic 22 10 2 3
Tre Mann S 32 10 4 2
Cody Martin S 28 7 3 3
Seth Curry 25 6 2 3
Bryce McGowens 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 15 2 5
Andrew Wiggins S 28 14 2 3
Klay Thompson 21 13 2 0
Brandin Podziemski S 31 13 6 6
Gary Payton II 11 12 0 0
Jonathan Kuminga S 28 6 7 6
Moses Moody 8 5 0 0
Draymond Green S 21 5 13 3
Lester Quinones 10 5 4 0
Gui Santos 5 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 7-foot two point shot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
14%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
6 Nick Richards CHA
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Cody Martin CHA
7%
10 Tre Mann CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
26%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.7 4.7 6.4
2 Miles Bridges CHA 24.0 6.7 4.9
3 Brandon Miller CHA 22.7 4.8 3.3
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.5 5.5 4.1
5 Klay Thompson GS 15.7 4.1 2.2
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.5 5.0 2.1
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.9 7.2 6.0
8 Grant Williams CHA 13.0 4.7 1.9
9 Draymond Green GS 12.0 8.2 5.7
10 Cody Martin CHA 11.0 4.7 4.8
11 Nick Richards CHA 11.0 8.5 1.4
12 Moses Moody GS 7.7 2.9 0.9
13 Tre Mann CHA 7.4 3.3 3.3
14 Lester Quinones GS 7.3 3.2 1.9
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.7 1.8 4.1
16 Seth Curry CHA 5.6 1.5 1.0
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.1 3.4 0.7
18 Dario Saric GS 5.0 2.8 2.2
19 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.9 1.7 0.8
20 Gui Santos GS 4.5 2.6 0.8
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.4 0.8
22 Davis Bertans CHA 4.0 1.4 0.7
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.7 4.2 1.3
24 Marques Bolden CHA 2.7 3.0 0.7
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.6 1.1 0.6
26 JT Thor CHA 2.3 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.