NBA games

MIA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
106–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31272622106
NO2434221595

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NO
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 24 7 1
Jimmy Butler III S 27 23 9 6
Duncan Robinson 31 17 0 2
Tyler Herro S 31 15 6 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 8 4 1
Caleb Martin S 32 8 5 3
Haywood Highsmith 19 5 4 1
Nikola Jovic S 21 3 3 2
Kevin Love 17 3 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 36 23 9 7
Herbert Jones S 38 19 5 2
Jordan Hawkins 23 14 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 25 12 10 0
Larry Nance Jr. 18 10 9 1
Trey Murphy III S 32 5 6 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 24 5 6 1
Jose Alvarado 18 5 3 2
CJ McCollum S 15 2 2 1
Naji Marshall 13 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes layup (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 CJ McCollum NO
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Caleb Martin MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 5.3 6.3
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.6 5.7 4.7
3 CJ McCollum NO 20.2 4.6 4.3
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.0 9.9 4.1
5 Tyler Herro MIA 17.0 4.0 5.1
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.8 8.8 2.3
7 Herbert Jones NO 11.9 3.9 2.5
8 Trey Murphy III NO 11.5 3.8 1.4
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.4 1.6 1.6
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.4 3.3 2.0
11 Caleb Martin MIA 8.3 3.3 1.5
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.3 2.5 2.0
13 Naji Marshall NO 6.8 2.9 1.8
14 Matt Ryan NO 6.5 2.2 1.1
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.3 4.4 2.0
16 Kevin Love MIA 4.7 4.4 1.4
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.7 2.1 0.6
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.7 2.2 0.9
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.9 2.7 0.8
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 2.2 0.6
21 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 2.1 0.6
22 Delon Wright MIA 2.1 0.8 0.8
23 Cole Swider MIA 1.9 0.4 0.4
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 1.9 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.