NBA games

WSH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH28292425106
OKC41393730147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home OKC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole 23 21 3 3
Corey Kispert 25 20 2 0
Marvin Bagley III S 21 15 14 1
Kyle Kuzma S 27 14 4 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 11 5 2
Eugene Omoruyi 15 7 1 1
Tyus Jones S 23 5 1 6
Jared Butler 10 4 1 1
Justin Champagnie 6 4 0 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 16 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 30 7 9
Chet Holmgren S 23 25 10 0
Cason Wallace 22 13 5 1
Aaron Wiggins 15 12 3 1
Kenrich Williams 14 12 2 1
Josh Giddey S 22 12 7 3
Jalen Williams S 20 11 2 5
Luguentz Dort S 23 9 0 0
Isaiah Joe 20 8 2 5
Gordon Hayward 15 8 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Marvin Bagley III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
17%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Bismack Biyombo OKC
7%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
40%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.9 5.2 7.8
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.3 6.2 3.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.3 4.5 5.7
4 Deni Avdija WSH 20.5 8.3 3.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.8 8.9 2.7
6 Gordon Hayward OKC 16.5 4.7 4.6
7 Corey Kispert WSH 15.9 3.9 2.8
8 Tyus Jones WSH 14.2 3.1 9.9
9 Jordan Poole WSH 13.4 3.5 4.9
10 Josh Giddey OKC 12.8 5.8 3.9
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.2 7.6 1.5
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.9 1.8
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.4 4.0 1.7
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.2 3.1 1.6
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.6 4.4 1.4
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 2.5 1.4
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.6 2.2 1.3
18 Bismack Biyombo OKC 6.4 6.4 1.6
19 Landry Shamet WSH 5.7 1.9 1.0
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.5 1.1
21 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.5 2.9 1.2
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.0 2.7 0.7
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.8 2.6 1.2
24 Jared Butler WSH 3.7 0.8 1.3
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.6 2.8 0.8
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.6 2.5 0.6
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 1.4 0.6
28 Johnny Davis WSH 2.7 1.3 0.6
29 Keyontae Johnson OKC 2.5 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.