NBA games

MIL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
112–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31203625112
MIN27301337107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 41 33 13 5
Damian Lillard S 38 21 9 10
Brook Lopez S 31 16 3 1
Bobby Portis 22 14 5 1
Malik Beasley S 32 14 2 3
Pat Connaughton 20 8 4 0
Patrick Beverley 16 4 3 3
Jae Crowder S 35 2 7 1
Danilo Gallinari 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 28 9 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 22 14 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 15 13 1 1
Rudy Gobert S 38 12 19 1
Mike Conley S 28 9 2 2
Kyle Anderson 29 8 2 6
Naz Reid 23 8 4 1
Monte Morris 10 5 0 1
Jaden McDaniels S 24 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
20%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
16%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
6 Mike Conley MIN
9%
7 Jae Crowder MIL
9%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
9 Anthony Edwards MIN
0%
10 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
10%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.8 9.5 7.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.9 5.1 5.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.4 6.9 2.8
4 Damian Lillard MIL 23.1 3.8 6.2
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.5 11.2 1.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.0 7.0 1.6
7 Brook Lopez MIL 11.8 5.6 1.6
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.4 4.5 1.1
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.9 2.9 1.5
10 Malik Beasley MIL 9.5 3.2 1.3
11 Mike Conley MIN 9.3 3.2 5.4
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.1 2.4 2.2
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.9 2.3 3.0
14 Jae Crowder MIL 6.6 2.6 1.5
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.1 3.0 2.1
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.8 2.8 3.2
17 Danilo Gallinari MIL 4.3 1.5 0.9
18 AJ Green MIL 3.9 1.1 0.4
19 Monte Morris MIN 3.8 1.5 1.2
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.4 0.9 0.9
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.2 1.2 0.5
22 Daishen Nix MIN 1.9 0.6 0.4
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 1.0 0.5
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 1.0 0.3
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.