NBA games

LAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
101–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC29242622101
MEM2930162095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MEM
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 36 24 8 4
Terance Mann S 31 23 12 1
Paul George S 37 14 5 3
Russell Westbrook 23 13 2 0
Ivica Zubac S 27 10 10 2
James Harden S 39 9 8 8
Mason Plumlee 8 6 1 0
Amir Coffey 25 2 2 2
P.J. Tucker 14 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 29 4 5
GG Jackson 24 11 2 1
Ziaire Williams S 30 10 4 1
Vince Williams Jr. S 36 9 6 8
Lamar Stevens 16 8 8 1
John Konchar 21 7 4 3
Luke Kennard S 26 7 2 2
Santi Aldama S 24 7 6 1
Derrick Rose 14 4 1 2
Jake LaRavia 17 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Luke Kennard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 Paul George LAC
11%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
7 Jordan Goodwin MEM
7%
8 James Harden LAC
7%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.3 5.0 3.9
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.8 5.7 3.7
3 James Harden LAC 20.0 6.5 6.7
4 Paul George LAC 19.0 4.7 4.4
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.2 6.2 5.7
6 GG Jackson MEM 15.6 4.7 1.4
7 Norman Powell LAC 13.8 3.2 1.6
8 Luke Kennard MEM 13.3 2.6 3.6
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.0 3.5 4.6
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.8 10.6 1.6
11 Amir Coffey LAC 11.3 2.7 1.5
12 Santi Aldama MEM 10.4 4.8 2.9
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.7 2.5 2.1
14 Terance Mann LAC 7.4 3.2 1.8
15 John Konchar MEM 7.1 5.6 2.1
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.4 6.4 1.3
17 Derrick Rose MEM 6.4 1.6 3.1
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.4 1.5 3.5
19 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.8 3.1 0.6
20 Daniel Theis LAC 4.7 2.8 1.0
21 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.2 1.6 0.8
22 Brandon Boston LAC 3.7 1.7 0.6
23 Jordan Goodwin MEM 3.6 1.2 0.7
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.2 0.9
25 Yuta Watanabe MEM 2.4 0.8 0.4
26 Bones Hyland LAC 2.2 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.