NBA games

PHX @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28242434110
HOU20373225114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home HOU
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 28 11 8
Devin Booker S 36 25 5 2
Bol Bol 27 25 14 0
Grayson Allen S 36 15 6 6
Drew Eubanks S 25 9 5 1
Eric Gordon S 30 5 2 2
Thaddeus Young 19 2 8 0
Royce O'Neale 17 1 4 1
Josh Okogie 12 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 37 23 5 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 22 16 3
Alperen Sengun S 35 17 12 4
Cam Whitmore 21 15 3 1
Amen Thompson 33 15 10 2
Jalen Green S 21 14 3 4
Jeff Green 15 3 2 1
Aaron Holiday 11 3 0 3
Dillon Brooks S 26 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
10 Drew Eubanks PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.2 7.4 5.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.3 4.2 6.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.2 9.2 5.1
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.7 5.5 4.6
5 Cam Whitmore HOU 16.7 4.4 1.5
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.9 3.9 2.1
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.7 4.1 6.3
8 Amen Thompson HOU 13.5 9.2 3.7
9 Eric Gordon PHX 13.4 2.9 2.3
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.2 6.3 1.7
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.4 3.3 3.8
12 David Roddy PHX 10.3 4.3 2.2
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.1 4.5 1.9
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.0 2.3 2.2
15 Jeff Green HOU 6.8 2.9 1.5
16 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.7 3.9 1.9
17 Josh Okogie PHX 6.3 2.9 0.8
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.7 4.4 0.8
19 Bol Bol PHX 4.8 3.8 0.7
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.4 2.8 1.1
21 Saben Lee PHX 4.2 2.1 1.2
22 Theo Maledon PHX 3.9 1.6 1.5
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.9 1.9 0.8
24 Jock Landale HOU 3.6 3.2 1.0
25 Nassir Little PHX 3.0 1.5 0.7
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.5 2.2 0.4
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.1 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.