NBA games

CLE @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
97–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2525202797
PHI25282130104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHI
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 36 24 9 0
Darius Garland S 38 20 5 9
Max Strus S 35 14 1 6
Isaac Okoro S 29 11 2 4
Georges Niang 21 9 5 0
Evan Mobley S 27 8 10 0
Caris LeVert 25 6 5 4
Sam Merrill 12 3 3 0
Craig Porter Jr. 5 2 0 1
Dean Wade 11 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 24 7 5
Cameron Payne 20 16 1 2
Tobias Harris S 34 15 9 4
Buddy Hield S 32 13 5 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 28 10 5 1
Paul Reed S 31 8 12 1
De'Anthony Melton 16 7 1 1
KJ Martin 17 6 6 2
Ricky Council IV 6 3 1 0
Mo Bamba 17 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
6 Paul Reed PHI
9%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Buddy Hield PHI
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.0 4.2 5.2
2 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.0 11.0 2.3
3 Tobias Harris PHI 17.2 5.8 4.6
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.0 5.1 1.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.8 9.6 3.0
6 Buddy Hield PHI 15.5 3.7 4.9
7 Darius Garland CLE 15.0 2.4 6.6
8 Max Strus CLE 11.0 4.4 3.5
9 Caris LeVert CLE 11.0 3.9 5.2
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.9 3.2 1.7
11 De'Anthony Melton PHI 9.6 3.6 1.9
12 Paul Reed PHI 8.2 7.2 1.3
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.4 2.8 0.7
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.1 4.0 2.2
15 Georges Niang CLE 7.0 2.8 1.5
16 KJ Martin PHI 7.0 3.8 1.3
17 Cameron Payne PHI 6.9 2.1 2.7
18 Ty Jerome CLE 6.7 2.2 3.8
19 Dean Wade CLE 5.6 3.3 0.9
20 Darius Bazley PHI 5.2 4.1 1.5
21 Sam Merrill CLE 5.0 1.4 1.4
22 Mo Bamba PHI 5.0 4.8 0.9
23 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.2 1.0 1.0
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.0 2.2 1.5
25 Damian Jones CLE 2.3 1.5 0.6
26 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 1.6 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.