NBA games

TOR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
123–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR33323127123
ATL22422631121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ATL
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 37 24 7 5
Scottie Barnes S 37 20 5 10
Gradey Dick 22 18 2 1
Ochai Agbaji 17 14 4 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 13 4 4
Bruce Brown 32 12 3 3
Jakob Poeltl S 26 12 13 6
Kelly Olynyk 22 10 5 6
Jordan Nwora S 14 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 36 24 10 7
De'Andre Hunter 25 22 5 2
Saddiq Bey S 34 18 9 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 14 4 5
Bruno Fernando 11 12 4 0
Jalen Johnson S 37 12 12 4
Trae Young S 35 11 3 7
Clint Capela S 19 5 7 1
Garrison Mathews 13 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Clint Capela makes 3-foot layup (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
14%
2 Saddiq Bey ATL
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
8 Bruno Fernando ATL
9%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
49%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.1 5.8 6.6
2 Trae Young ATL 23.4 2.5 11.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.7 8.6 6.6
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.2 3.7 5.9
5 Saddiq Bey ATL 17.2 6.4 2.1
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.6 9.6 3.7
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.2 3.8 3.5
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.5 7.5 1.4
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.2 3.1 1.6
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.0 10.5 2.5
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.5 3.2 1.7
12 Clint Capela ATL 11.1 9.6 1.0
13 Bruce Brown TOR 10.3 3.6 2.6
14 Gradey Dick TOR 8.7 2.7 1.4
15 Kelly Olynyk TOR 8.4 4.7 3.5
16 Jordan Nwora TOR 5.9 2.6 1.4
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.7 4.3 0.8
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.7 2.2 1.1
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.7 3.4 0.4
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.5 1.6 0.9
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.1 0.8 0.4
22 Patty Mills ATL 3.0 0.9 0.7
23 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.5 1.3 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.