NBA games

SA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32253035122
SAC30352834127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home SAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 37 32 1 7
Victor Wembanyama S 31 19 13 4
Keldon Johnson 31 18 4 3
Jeremy Sochan S 36 16 8 2
Tre Jones S 30 10 2 9
Julian Champagnie S 17 10 5 2
Malaki Branham 13 5 3 2
Cedi Osman 11 5 2 3
Blake Wesley 17 4 1 1
Zach Collins 17 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 28 5 9
Domantas Sabonis S 33 22 11 11
Malik Monk 27 21 3 2
Kevin Huerter S 31 21 4 5
Keegan Murray S 35 16 4 0
Chris Duarte 20 6 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 17 5 4 0
Alex Len 14 4 4 0
Trey Lyles 15 4 3 0
Davion Mitchell 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 1-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
3 Devin Vassell SA
13%
4 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.9 4.6 5.6
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.5 13.9 11.0
3 Devin Vassell SA 23.2 4.4 4.2
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.7 10.2 4.7
5 Malik Monk SAC 20.4 4.0 4.9
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 13.0 3.3 1.2
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.3 5.3 1.6
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.0 3.1 2.1
9 Tre Jones SA 11.2 3.4 5.7
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.7 6.5 1.8
11 Keegan Murray SAC 10.1 4.0 1.7
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.3 3.2 1.0
13 Zach Collins SA 5.6 4.0 1.7
14 Blake Wesley SA 5.4 1.2 3.2
15 Cedi Osman SA 5.2 2.2 1.2
16 Malaki Branham SA 4.9 1.6 1.5
17 Julian Champagnie SA 4.7 2.9 1.1
18 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.2 1.0 1.1
19 Chris Duarte SAC 3.9 1.6 0.8
20 JaVale McGee SAC 2.9 2.3 0.3
21 Devonte' Graham SA 2.8 1.2 0.8
22 Keon Ellis SAC 2.6 1.0 0.5
23 Alex Len SAC 2.5 2.4 0.5
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.3 0.9 0.4
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.1 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.