NBA games

LAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
110–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28282628110
GS31363130128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home GS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 33 27 15 1
D'Angelo Russell S 34 18 5 9
Austin Reaves S 27 16 2 4
Taurean Prince S 32 12 3 2
Max Christie 29 9 3 6
Rui Hachimura S 32 8 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 18 7 7 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 18 5 0 3
Skylar Mays 6 4 0 0
Jalen Hood-Schifino 6 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 32 1 8
Andrew Wiggins S 28 20 3 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 15 17 5 1
Jonathan Kuminga S 24 12 3 3
Brandin Podziemski S 28 10 9 1
Draymond Green S 21 8 7 5
Lester Quinones 14 7 1 1
Jerome Robinson 4 6 0 0
Moses Moody 20 4 6 1
Dario Saric 15 4 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
16%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
13%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
12%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Max Christie LAL
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
10 Klay Thompson GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
21%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.6 5.1 6.8
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 11.8 4.7
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.9 6.4 3.8
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.4 3.3 6.1
5 Austin Reaves LAL 21.1 3.5 6.2
6 Klay Thompson GS 16.4 4.1 2.1
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.5 4.3 1.3
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.2 5.0 2.1
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.0 6.8 5.8
10 Draymond Green GS 12.1 7.9 5.6
11 Taurean Prince LAL 8.5 3.2 1.1
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.5 1.6 4.7
13 Moses Moody GS 5.9 2.0 0.6
14 Lester Quinones GS 5.7 2.7 1.5
15 Dario Saric GS 4.5 2.3 2.0
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.3 3.6 0.7
17 Max Christie LAL 4.0 1.5 0.6
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.5 3.2 0.5
19 Gui Santos GS 3.5 2.2 0.5
20 Colin Castleton LAL 3.0 2.2 0.4
21 Kevon Looney GS 2.7 3.6 1.0
22 Skylar Mays LAL 2.5 1.0 0.8
23 Dylan Windler LAL 1.6 0.6 0.4
24 Jerome Robinson GS 1.6 1.0 0.4
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.