NBA games

CHA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
115–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA34222930115
UTAH26263817107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home UTAH
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 41 26 14 4
Grant Williams 27 24 0 2
Brandon Miller S 38 16 3 5
Tre Mann S 30 13 6 4
Seth Curry 19 10 2 0
Davis Bertans 6 9 0 0
Nick Richards S 28 8 10 3
Cody Martin S 31 5 5 2
Vasilije Micic 20 4 2 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 37 21 9 6
Collin Sexton S 26 17 2 5
Keyonte George S 31 16 3 5
Jordan Clarkson 34 15 8 4
Taylor Hendricks S 26 12 9 1
John Collins S 31 9 18 2
Kris Dunn 25 8 3 3
Brice Sensabaugh 13 7 0 0
Walker Kessler 17 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nick Richards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Cody Martin CHA
8%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
10 Tre Mann CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 25.5 6.9 5.1
2 Brandon Miller CHA 24.8 5.3 3.2
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.1 3.1 6.4
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.7 7.7 2.3
5 Keyonte George UTAH 16.2 3.2 3.7
6 John Collins UTAH 15.9 10.1 1.7
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 15.9 2.6 3.9
8 Grant Williams CHA 13.1 5.0 2.2
9 Nick Richards CHA 11.8 8.6 1.3
10 Cody Martin CHA 11.5 4.2 4.6
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.0 7.2 1.0
12 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.0 1.6 2.6
13 Tre Mann CHA 6.9 3.0 3.1
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.8 2.1 1.1
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.5 1.5 3.8
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.2 2.7 3.4
17 Seth Curry CHA 5.4 1.3 0.9
18 Davis Bertans CHA 4.1 1.3 0.8
19 JT Thor CHA 4.1 1.9 0.7
20 Marques Bolden CHA 3.9 3.3 0.9
21 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.6 2.6 0.5
22 Johnny Juzang UTAH 2.7 0.9 1.2
23 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 1.9 0.7 0.4
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.8 0.7 0.6
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 1.7 0.8 0.4
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.5 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.