NBA games

WSH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
110–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25243427110
DEN38342929130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DEN
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 31 12 3
Jordan Poole 30 18 1 1
Tyus Jones S 31 13 2 14
Corey Kispert 25 12 2 3
Marvin Bagley III S 17 8 7 2
Justin Champagnie 4 7 0 0
Eugene Omoruyi 11 7 3 2
Deni Avdija S 27 5 4 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 32 4 1 2
Anthony Gill 4 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 22 11 2
Nikola Jokic S 31 21 19 15
Jamal Murray S 31 18 4 8
Aaron Gordon S 21 17 2 4
Christian Braun 23 12 10 1
Reggie Jackson 22 11 1 5
Peyton Watson 22 11 5 1
Justin Holiday 15 8 1 2
Zeke Nnaji 17 8 3 1
Jay Huff 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
6%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
32%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.9 12.2 9.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.5 6.6 3.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.9 3.9 6.5
4 Deni Avdija WSH 20.7 8.0 3.5
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.9 6.7 2.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.7 5.6 1.9
7 Corey Kispert WSH 14.2 3.7 2.1
8 Tyus Jones WSH 13.8 2.7 9.2
9 Jordan Poole WSH 12.3 3.2 4.2
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.0 7.6 1.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.3 2.5 1.4
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.1 3.9 1.4
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.8 2.6 3.0
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.7 5.6 1.5
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.1 4.0 1.4
16 Christian Braun DEN 4.9 2.8 1.0
17 Julian Strawther DEN 4.5 1.2 1.0
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.2 1.2 0.8
19 Landry Shamet WSH 4.1 1.3 0.7
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 2.9 2.3 0.7
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.4 0.6
22 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.6 1.9 0.5
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 2.8 0.4
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.4 1.9 0.4
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.7 0.8
26 Jay Huff DEN 2.2 0.8 0.5
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.7 0.8 0.3
28 Braxton Key DEN 1.7 0.8 0.5
29 Johnny Davis WSH 1.2 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.