NBA games

LAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC33262325107
OKC35263533129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home OKC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 20 3 2
Norman Powell 31 19 2 1
James Harden S 29 17 6 2
Paul George S 36 14 7 6
Ivica Zubac S 29 13 12 1
Amir Coffey 28 8 1 3
Terance Mann S 28 8 6 6
Brandon Boston 4 4 0 0
Mason Plumlee 8 2 4 1
Russell Westbrook 16 2 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 31 4 8
Luguentz Dort S 31 19 3 1
Jalen Williams S 36 18 4 6
Chet Holmgren S 33 17 10 3
Josh Giddey S 23 12 5 2
Isaiah Joe 19 9 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 14 9 2 0
Kenrich Williams 15 7 5 0
Cason Wallace 19 7 4 3
Olivier Sarr 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gordon Hayward OKC
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Bismack Biyombo OKC
8%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.1 5.2 7.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.4 5.7 3.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.6 4.0 4.9
4 James Harden LAC 18.9 6.5 6.9
5 Paul George LAC 18.7 4.5 4.0
6 Gordon Hayward OKC 18.3 4.4 5.3
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.3 8.9 1.9
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.0 3.5 4.3
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.0 3.0 1.3
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.9 9.4 1.2
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.4 2.4 1.1
12 Josh Giddey OKC 10.4 5.2 3.6
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.7 3.1 1.4
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.6 2.6 1.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.7 2.7 1.3
16 Bismack Biyombo OKC 6.0 6.3 1.5
17 Cason Wallace OKC 5.7 1.7 1.0
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.5 6.2 0.9
19 Daniel Theis LAC 4.4 2.9 1.0
20 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.4 1.6 0.9
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.6 1.9 0.7
22 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.6 2.8 1.1
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.2 2.1 0.9
24 Brandon Boston LAC 2.5 1.0 0.4
25 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.5 1.3 0.5
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.3 2.3 0.3
27 Bones Hyland LAC 2.0 0.5 0.7
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.