NBA games

HOU @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
105–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27232926105
NO31323826127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NO
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson 28 22 5 4
Alperen Sengun S 27 20 9 2
Cam Whitmore 24 13 4 0
Jalen Green S 24 10 4 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 9 4 1
Jeff Green 9 8 3 3
Dillon Brooks S 27 7 2 2
Fred VanVleet S 30 7 3 6
Jae'Sean Tate 12 4 5 2
Reggie Bullock Jr. 10 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 31 28 6 6
Zion Williamson S 35 27 3 9
Jonas Valanciunas S 27 20 14 3
Herbert Jones S 37 17 5 4
Trey Murphy III S 34 13 3 1
Jose Alvarado 20 11 2 7
Naji Marshall 20 6 2 3
Jordan Hawkins 17 3 2 0
Cody Zeller 2 2 2 1
Matt Ryan 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 CJ McCollum NO
9%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
21%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.2 5.3 5.2
2 Jalen Green HOU 19.6 5.7 4.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.9 8.4 4.9
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.6 4.0 3.7
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.5 3.7 1.8
6 Cam Whitmore HOU 13.2 3.8 1.0
7 Herbert Jones NO 12.3 3.7 2.2
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.1 6.4 1.5
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.9 3.4 5.8
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO 11.9 8.2 2.2
11 Amen Thompson HOU 10.9 8.4 3.0
12 Trey Murphy III NO 10.8 3.7 1.1
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.3 1.8 2.2
14 Matt Ryan NO 7.0 1.8 1.0
15 Jose Alvarado NO 5.3 1.9 1.5
16 Naji Marshall NO 5.1 2.6 1.5
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 4.8 4.1 1.7
18 Jeff Green HOU 4.6 2.2 0.9
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.5 1.6 0.7
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 2.2 0.8
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.5 1.4 0.5
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.5 1.7 0.4
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 0.9 0.4
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.0 2.1 0.4
25 Jock Landale HOU 1.9 2.1 0.5
26 Cody Zeller NO 1.8 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.