NBA games

BOS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
129–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS31283733129
CHI23392129112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHI
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 33 28 3 5
Jayson Tatum S 35 25 7 5
Jaylen Brown S 33 21 5 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 14 4 1
Luke Kornet 14 10 4 2
Jrue Holiday S 29 9 3 6
Payton Pritchard 20 9 3 1
Sam Hauser 14 8 1 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 2 3 1 1
Xavier Tillman 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 35 22 14 2
Coby White S 35 20 2 4
DeMar DeRozan S 36 19 4 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 41 14 8 8
Alex Caruso S 30 12 3 5
Andre Drummond 17 11 8 0
Julian Phillips 18 9 2 1
Dalen Terry 12 3 3 2
Jevon Carter 12 2 1 2
Terry Taylor 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:42 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 15-foot jumper (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
2 Coby White CHI
10%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
6 Andre Drummond CHI
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Jaden Springer BOS
7%
9 Xavier Tillman BOS
6%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
16%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.5 8.1 6.5
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.6 4.3 5.2
3 Coby White CHI 23.1 4.8 6.1
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.6 6.9 1.9
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.7 6.7 4.4
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 9.8 2.6
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.1 3.3 3.5
8 Derrick White BOS 14.4 3.5 4.2
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.5 4.2 5.0
10 Alex Caruso CHI 10.0 4.7 3.4
11 Al Horford BOS 9.0 5.4 2.3
12 Andre Drummond CHI 8.4 9.7 0.6
13 Xavier Tillman BOS 8.1 4.6 1.9
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.9 2.5 1.4
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 2.0 0.9
16 Torrey Craig CHI 5.3 3.4 0.9
17 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.3 1.1 0.6
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.2 4.5 0.5
19 Jaden Springer BOS 4.1 2.0 1.0
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.0 0.8 0.4
21 Jevon Carter CHI 3.0 0.9 0.7
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.6 1.2 0.9
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.5 0.9 0.4
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.4 1.6 0.7
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.3 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.