NBA games

PHX @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
113–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX33302822113
DAL32283627123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DAL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 35 5 8
Kevin Durant S 40 23 6 1
Eric Gordon S 35 16 1 1
Josh Okogie 19 11 4 1
Grayson Allen S 37 10 5 2
Royce O'Neale 30 10 9 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 20 5 5 3
Nassir Little 6 3 1 0
Drew Eubanks 6 0 3 0
Saben Lee 6 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 41 9 11
Kyrie Irving S 36 29 5 3
P.J. Washington S 31 12 6 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 12 4 0
Josh Green S 25 9 2 5
Maxi Kleber 26 7 2 1
Dereck Lively II S 16 5 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 4 2 1
Daniel Gafford 17 4 5 1
Dwight Powell 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
8 Eric Gordon PHX
8%
9 Josh Green DAL
7%
10 Devin Booker PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
12%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.2 10.3 9.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.0 5.3 5.7
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.7 7.6 6.2
4 Devin Booker PHX 24.4 4.1 6.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.8 5.5 2.1
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 13.3 3.5 1.9
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.4 8.9 4.3
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.4 10.5 1.4
9 Josh Green DAL 12.3 3.6 2.4
10 Eric Gordon PHX 12.0 2.5 2.0
11 David Roddy PHX 9.6 5.0 2.1
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.4 7.8 1.4
13 Grayson Allen PHX 9.3 2.9 3.3
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.0 1.9 1.8
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.5 3.6 1.5
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.7 3.3 1.6
17 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.3 3.8 1.8
18 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.6 2.6 1.2
19 Bol Bol PHX 4.6 3.7 0.7
20 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.5 4.3 0.8
21 Josh Okogie PHX 4.0 2.2 0.5
22 Theo Maledon PHX 3.2 1.0 1.4
23 Saben Lee PHX 2.9 1.4 0.7
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 3.0 0.6
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.4 1.4 0.5
26 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.2 1.9 0.4
27 Nassir Little PHX 1.9 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.