NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
93–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2127232293
TOR30292339121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 35 21 4 1
Cam Thomas S 30 19 2 4
Lonnie Walker IV 19 11 4 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 9 5 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 16 6 3 1
Cameron Johnson 21 6 2 2
Nic Claxton S 32 6 10 3
Trendon Watford 4 4 0 0
Dennis Schroder 23 4 2 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 15 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 25 1 2
Immanuel Quickley S 33 24 6 3
Scottie Barnes S 31 18 12 3
RJ Barrett S 29 12 5 7
Kelly Olynyk 18 8 4 1
Jakob Poeltl S 26 8 9 2
Gradey Dick 17 7 4 0
Jordan Nwora 4 6 1 0
Bruce Brown 25 6 1 4
D.J. Carton 4 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
15%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
15%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
8 Dennis Schroder BKN
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
42%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.4 4.0 4.1
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.6 6.8 4.0
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.0 3.8 3.8
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.8 7.8 6.8
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.6 3.3 5.7
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.1 9.9 2.3
7 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.8 3.4 5.1
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.3 10.7 1.9
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 12.0 4.2 3.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.6 2.8 1.3
11 Bruce Brown TOR 9.7 3.7 2.1
12 Ben Simmons BKN 8.5 8.0 5.6
13 Gradey Dick TOR 8.0 2.4 1.4
14 Kelly Olynyk TOR 7.7 4.2 3.0
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.2 6.0 1.4
16 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.1 1.5 1.5
17 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 6.5 3.9 1.6
18 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.2 3.0 3.1
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.9 2.8 1.4
20 Chris Boucher TOR 4.8 3.7 0.5
21 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.5 1.8 1.1
22 Trendon Watford BKN 3.9 1.3 0.8
23 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 3.9 1.8 0.6
24 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.8 1.7 0.7
25 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.8 1.1 0.5
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.