NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
110–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32372219110
PHI2125351596

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic 24 22 2 0
Jalen Brunson S 39 21 2 12
Precious Achiuwa S 38 18 11 2
Josh Hart S 44 18 12 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 35 16 3 3
Alec Burks 13 7 1 1
Jericho Sims 18 4 10 2
Miles McBride 17 4 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 11 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 35 6 5
Buddy Hield S 33 14 2 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. 33 14 4 0
Kyle Lowry 25 11 4 5
Cameron Payne 9 7 0 0
Tobias Harris S 27 7 4 3
KJ Martin 21 6 7 1
Paul Reed S 22 2 5 0
Mo Bamba 5 0 1 1
Nicolas Batum S 18 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
5 Josh Hart NY
8%
6 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
7 Paul Reed PHI
8%
8 KJ Martin PHI
8%
9 Alec Burks NY
7%
10 Jericho Sims NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.0 4.1 8.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.5 3.9 5.6
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 21.9 3.7 4.0
4 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 18.8 3.0 2.4
5 Tobias Harris PHI 17.8 5.3 4.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.7 5.1 1.5
7 Buddy Hield PHI 14.1 3.5 4.4
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 13.6 9.9 1.5
9 Josh Hart NY 12.1 9.5 5.2
10 Alec Burks NY 11.9 3.0 1.7
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.6 9.3 2.2
12 Miles McBride NY 8.3 1.7 1.2
13 Paul Reed PHI 8.3 7.1 1.2
14 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.3 2.9 3.5
15 Darius Bazley PHI 7.0 5.4 2.1
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.5 2.3 0.5
17 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.2 3.2 2.0
18 Cameron Payne PHI 5.9 1.8 2.8
19 KJ Martin PHI 5.8 2.9 1.0
20 Jericho Sims NY 4.1 4.1 0.6
21 Mo Bamba PHI 4.0 4.8 0.7
22 Terquavion Smith PHI 3.2 0.5 0.8
23 Jacob Toppin NY 2.8 1.3 0.4
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.6 1.2 0.6
25 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.9 0.7 0.4
26 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 1.7 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.