NBA games

DET @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
115–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET25184527115
IND42303027129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home IND
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 30 30 5 8
Jalen Duren S 30 15 13 2
Simone Fontecchio S 33 14 1 0
Jaden Ivey S 32 14 2 3
Ausar Thompson S 35 11 7 5
Evan Fournier 18 10 4 0
Marcus Sasser 10 9 1 2
James Wiseman 18 6 5 2
Troy Brown Jr. 13 2 2 2
Malachi Flynn 11 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 25 2 13
Pascal Siakam S 32 20 4 2
T.J. McConnell 18 16 6 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 35 15 6 5
Myles Turner S 28 13 11 1
Isaiah Jackson 20 13 0 0
Obi Toppin 16 9 6 3
Andrew Nembhard S 32 8 6 5
Ben Sheppard 15 7 1 0
Doug McDermott 10 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Isaiah Jackson IND
8%
7 Simone Fontecchio DET
8%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.8 5.8 4.6
2 Jaden Ivey DET 20.8 4.2 3.8
3 Cade Cunningham DET 20.1 4.5 6.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.3 3.9 8.3
5 Myles Turner IND 16.1 5.4 1.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 14.6 11.8 2.6
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.9 6.0 2.2
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.1 3.5 1.7
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.0 2.6 5.1
10 Jalen Smith IND 10.1 4.8 0.9
11 Simone Fontecchio DET 9.8 4.1 1.5
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.7 5.5 1.3
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.0 2.8 5.3
14 Marcus Sasser DET 8.4 1.7 3.9
15 Evan Fournier DET 6.9 2.1 0.8
16 Obi Toppin IND 6.2 2.8 1.3
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.6 3.8 0.7
18 Doug McDermott IND 4.1 0.8 0.7
19 Shake Milton DET 4.0 2.1 1.1
20 James Wiseman DET 3.9 3.1 0.5
21 Ben Sheppard IND 3.8 1.2 0.6
22 Jarace Walker IND 3.5 1.4 0.9
23 Mike Muscala DET 3.2 1.7 0.5
24 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 3.1 2.3 0.5
25 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.9 1.4 0.8
26 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.3 1.0
27 Malachi Flynn DET 2.3 0.8 0.4
28 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.3 0.4
29 Kendall Brown IND 1.8 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.