NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
116–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29253230116
CLE24263227109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moritz Wagner 25 22 7 0
Franz Wagner S 32 14 4 4
Cole Anthony 19 13 2 6
Joe Ingles 18 12 1 2
Paolo Banchero S 34 12 6 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 12 2 1
Anthony Black 24 9 3 2
Gary Harris S 29 8 0 3
Jalen Suggs S 18 7 1 3
Jonathan Isaac 19 7 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 34 18 10 1
Darius Garland S 37 18 2 10
Max Strus S 33 18 4 6
Isaac Okoro S 30 17 2 1
Evan Mobley S 34 14 8 6
Georges Niang 16 9 0 1
Caris LeVert 27 6 2 2
Sam Merrill 12 4 2 4
Dean Wade 13 3 2 0
Craig Porter Jr. 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Max Strus makes layup (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
4 Darius Garland CLE
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Anthony Black ORL
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
10 Paolo Banchero ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 6.5 6.5
2 Franz Wagner ORL 22.5 5.4 4.7
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.6 10.5 1.9
4 Evan Mobley CLE 15.6 8.6 2.3
5 Darius Garland CLE 13.7 2.1 5.1
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.4 5.4 1.4
7 Caris LeVert CLE 10.1 3.4 4.2
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 9.7 2.9 2.3
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.5 2.6 1.3
10 Max Strus CLE 9.1 4.1 2.6
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.7 3.4 0.8
12 Cole Anthony ORL 6.1 2.5 1.6
13 Georges Niang CLE 5.3 2.4 0.9
14 Gary Harris ORL 4.9 1.6 1.2
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.4 4.3 0.5
16 Dean Wade CLE 3.8 2.6 0.6
17 Anthony Black ORL 3.6 0.9 0.8
18 Joe Ingles ORL 3.5 1.3 1.5
19 Sam Merrill CLE 3.4 0.7 0.7
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.4 0.8 0.3
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.4 1.4 1.2
22 Zhaire Smith CLE 2.3 1.6 0.6
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.0 0.9 0.3
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 1.8 2.4 0.6
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.8 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.