NBA games

MIN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
128–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN44223329128
POR1437251591

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home POR
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 34 6 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 23 8 1
Jaden McDaniels S 28 17 5 1
Monte Morris 15 12 1 3
Mike Conley S 22 12 4 3
Rudy Gobert S 26 11 12 2
Naz Reid 22 10 3 0
Daishen Nix 5 5 0 0
Kyle Anderson 21 2 7 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 33 20 2 0
Scoot Henderson S 31 15 1 4
Toumani Camara S 18 13 5 2
Anfernee Simons S 33 12 5 6
Jabari Walker 24 8 4 1
Duop Reath 17 6 3 0
Kris Murray 12 6 4 0
Dalano Banton 18 4 2 0
Ibou Badji 11 3 2 1
Ashton Hagans 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes driving layup (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
15%
2 Jerami Grant POR
14%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
24%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.3 4.9 5.8
2 Anfernee Simons POR 24.2 4.0 6.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.5 6.5 3.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.4 4.5 4.0
5 Deandre Ayton POR 17.7 11.1 2.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.9 11.9 1.6
7 Scoot Henderson POR 14.8 3.0 4.5
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.8 4.9 1.4
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 2.9 1.7
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.1 3.4 6.2
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.6 2.6 3.0
12 Jabari Walker POR 8.3 6.9 1.2
13 Toumani Camara POR 7.7 3.7 1.4
14 Duop Reath POR 7.2 2.7 1.2
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.7 2.2 1.8
16 Ashton Hagans POR 6.2 2.2 4.2
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.9 2.8 4.0
18 Monte Morris MIN 4.5 1.8 1.3
19 Kris Murray POR 4.2 2.0 0.9
20 Dalano Banton POR 3.9 1.4 1.6
21 Leonard Miller MIN 3.7 2.6 0.5
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.7 1.3 1.3
23 Daishen Nix MIN 3.0 1.0 0.7
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.2 0.5
25 Ibou Badji POR 2.4 2.6 0.8
26 Justin Minaya POR 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.