NBA games

MIL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL26312825110
MEM29283719113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 35 4 12
Damian Lillard S 35 24 5 7
Bobby Portis 25 15 7 2
Brook Lopez S 35 14 11 2
Malik Beasley S 30 9 2 0
AJ Green 14 6 1 1
Jae Crowder S 24 4 5 0
Pat Connaughton 24 2 5 0
Patrick Beverley 14 1 4 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ziaire Williams S 36 27 4 4
GG Jackson 30 27 1 0
Vince Williams Jr. S 34 18 12 7
Lamar Stevens 29 13 5 1
Jordan Goodwin S 29 11 7 3
Trey Jemison III S 23 10 6 2
Santi Aldama S 33 7 3 7
Jacob Gilyard 15 0 1 5
Yuta Watanabe 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
16%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
13%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
11%
6 Jae Crowder MIL
8%
7 Luke Kennard MEM
8%
8 Jacob Gilyard MEM
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
9%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.8 10.9 6.9
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.6 3.8 6.4
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.3 5.6 5.3
4 Bobby Portis MIL 14.6 7.5 2.1
5 GG Jackson MEM 14.1 4.8 1.6
6 Luke Kennard MEM 13.9 2.8 3.7
7 Brook Lopez MIL 13.6 6.2 2.0
8 Santi Aldama MEM 11.6 5.7 3.0
9 Malik Beasley MIL 11.1 3.7 1.7
10 Patrick Beverley MIL 10.0 3.2 4.9
11 Jae Crowder MIL 8.2 3.3 2.1
12 Derrick Rose MEM 7.8 2.2 3.3
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.3 2.9 2.0
14 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.8 1.7 3.8
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.5 3.6 3.1
16 AJ Green MIL 5.5 2.0 0.8
17 Lamar Stevens MEM 5.2 3.5 0.7
18 Trey Jemison III MEM 4.5 4.4 1.0
19 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.2 1.7 0.7
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.9 2.1 0.9
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.9 1.4 1.4
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 2.3 0.8
23 Jordan Goodwin MEM 3.5 1.6 0.8
24 Yuta Watanabe MEM 2.9 1.2 0.5
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.6 0.7
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.