NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
130–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC23293444130
GS30293828125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 40 26 8 7
Paul George S 33 24 5 5
Norman Powell 31 21 2 0
Russell Westbrook 31 15 5 6
Amir Coffey S 24 14 6 0
Ivica Zubac S 28 13 10 3
Terance Mann S 28 9 5 4
Mason Plumlee 16 8 6 3
Brandon Boston 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 41 4 5
Brandin Podziemski 32 25 7 8
Jonathan Kuminga S 35 13 8 6
Klay Thompson S 30 12 3 1
Andrew Wiggins S 30 10 6 3
Draymond Green S 31 9 10 4
Moses Moody 8 6 2 0
Kevon Looney 11 4 2 1
Lester Quinones 8 3 2 2
Gary Payton II 14 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"James Harden makes 12-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
13%
2 Paul George LAC
13%
3 Stephen Curry GS
12%
4 Klay Thompson GS
12%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
7 James Harden LAC
10%
8 Terance Mann LAC
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 29.3 5.6 6.8
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 23.3 5.9 3.4
3 James Harden LAC 19.7 6.4 8.1
4 Paul George LAC 19.3 4.4 3.9
5 Klay Thompson GS 15.0 3.5 2.2
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.5 4.8 2.2
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.6 3.7 4.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.8 6.9 5.0
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.5 3.0 1.4
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.1 8.7 1.4
11 Draymond Green GS 10.9 8.2 6.8
12 Amir Coffey LAC 10.3 2.2 1.4
13 Moses Moody GS 7.7 2.5 0.9
14 Terance Mann LAC 7.6 3.0 1.5
15 Mason Plumlee LAC 7.2 6.7 1.3
16 Dario Saric GS 6.8 3.3 2.7
17 Xavier Moon LAC 6.2 2.4 2.3
18 Lester Quinones GS 6.1 3.1 1.5
19 Daniel Theis LAC 6.0 3.4 1.3
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 3.1 1.0
21 Gui Santos GS 4.5 2.7 0.8
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.3 3.4 0.7
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.8 1.5 0.6
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.6 4.0 1.2
25 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.2 2.0 0.6
26 Jordan Miller LAC 3.1 1.3 0.6
27 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.3 0.6
28 Jerome Robinson GS 1.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.