NBA games

LAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
138122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL34363830138
UTAH28412330122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home UTAH
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 37 15 1
Rui Hachimura S 34 36 2 1
Austin Reaves S 34 22 4 7
Taurean Prince S 33 11 3 1
D'Angelo Russell S 33 11 9 17
Spencer Dinwiddie 28 10 0 4
Jaxson Hayes 12 4 0 1
Dylan Windler 8 3 0 1
Christian Wood 16 2 4 1
Colin Castleton 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 26 18 0 3
Jordan Clarkson 32 17 3 5
Lauri Markkanen S 34 16 8 1
Keyonte George S 33 13 5 7
Walker Kessler S 28 12 7 1
Kris Dunn 17 12 1 3
John Collins S 28 11 10 2
Taylor Hendricks 16 9 5 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 7 2 4
Luka Samanic 2 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
12%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 25.1 13.1 5.0
2 D'Angelo Russell LAL 23.1 3.3 8.5
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.3 3.7 7.0
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.3 6.8 2.7
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.4 3.4 6.9
6 John Collins UTAH 16.4 10.6 1.9
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 15.9 2.9 4.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.1 4.7 1.6
9 Keyonte George UTAH 13.1 3.0 4.0
10 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.7 2.6 3.6
11 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 11.1 2.4 5.9
12 Taurean Prince LAL 10.9 3.8 1.7
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.6 7.5 1.2
14 Christian Wood LAL 7.0 3.1 0.9
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.9 3.1 4.1
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.8 4.7 1.0
17 Colin Castleton LAL 5.6 3.9 0.9
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.4 3.4 0.9
19 Skylar Mays LAL 4.8 1.5 1.3
20 Dylan Windler LAL 3.3 0.8 0.7
21 Otto Porter Jr. UTAH 3.3 1.8 0.9
22 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 3.1 1.5 0.9
23 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.8 1.6 0.6
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.5 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.