NBA games

DET @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
100–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET25162831100
PHX37332917116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHX
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio S 21 18 1 1
Ausar Thompson S 29 14 7 1
Cade Cunningham S 26 13 4 8
Shake Milton 23 13 9 2
Evan Fournier 26 10 4 1
Jalen Duren S 23 7 9 5
Tosan Evbuomwan 8 5 2 0
Troy Brown Jr. 12 5 5 0
Marcus Sasser 24 4 1 6
Malachi Flynn 7 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 30 25 6 6
Saben Lee 24 16 6 2
Eric Gordon S 24 13 1 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 22 10 13 7
Grayson Allen S 27 9 1 6
Bol Bol 14 9 5 1
Royce O'Neale 24 9 7 3
Devin Booker S 5 7 1 1
Drew Eubanks 18 6 6 0
Theo Maledon 10 5 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Simone Fontecchio · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Simone Fontecchio makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Simone Fontecchio DET
10%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Devin Booker PHX
9%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
17%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 30.2 3.9 6.6
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.4 7.3 6.1
3 Jaden Ivey DET 22.4 4.3 4.4
4 Cade Cunningham DET 22.3 4.5 8.1
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.4 11.4 2.7
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.3 8.1 4.2
7 Eric Gordon PHX 13.2 2.7 2.3
8 David Roddy PHX 11.4 5.0 2.5
9 Grayson Allen PHX 11.1 3.4 3.6
10 Marcus Sasser DET 11.0 2.1 4.4
11 Simone Fontecchio DET 10.4 4.6 1.9
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 5.1 1.6
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.8 3.8 2.0
14 Evan Fournier DET 7.8 2.2 1.1
15 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.9 4.0 1.9
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.0 4.6 1.1
17 Bol Bol PHX 5.8 3.7 0.9
18 James Wiseman DET 5.5 3.6 0.9
19 Josh Okogie PHX 5.4 2.7 0.8
20 Mike Muscala DET 4.3 2.4 0.7
21 Shake Milton DET 4.1 2.2 1.3
22 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.9 1.7 1.1
23 Theo Maledon PHX 3.4 0.9 1.6
24 Nassir Little PHX 3.2 1.7 0.7
25 Malachi Flynn DET 3.1 1.2 0.7
26 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 3.0 2.6 0.8
27 Saben Lee PHX 2.7 1.1 0.7
28 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.2 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.