NBA games

SAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
102–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC16253031102
DEN2726212498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DEN
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 43 30 8 8
Harrison Barnes S 33 20 5 0
Domantas Sabonis S 38 20 13 7
Kevin Huerter S 26 8 5 2
Malik Monk 30 6 3 3
Keegan Murray S 35 6 5 1
Trey Lyles 12 4 5 0
Chris Duarte 8 3 1 0
Davion Mitchell 8 3 0 0
Alex Len 6 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 33 25 15 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 19 4 2
Nikola Jokic S 39 15 5 8
Reggie Jackson S 29 12 5 9
Justin Holiday S 35 8 4 2
Zeke Nnaji 9 8 2 0
Christian Braun 23 5 3 2
Peyton Watson 16 3 4 1
Collin Gillespie 18 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
17%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
3 Harrison Barnes SAC
13%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
10%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
9 Malik Monk SAC
0%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
57%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.2 12.2 9.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.6 4.2 5.3
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 14.6 9.5
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.6 4.0 5.0
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.7 5.9 1.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.1 5.9 2.9
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.6 3.4 2.8
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.5 3.4 1.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 11.4 4.2 2.0
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.5 2.6 2.6
11 Peyton Watson DEN 8.8 4.2 1.7
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 3.2 1.2
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.6 3.0 1.1
14 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.3 1.7 1.4
15 Justin Holiday DEN 4.5 1.4 0.9
16 Alex Len SAC 3.5 2.9 0.7
17 Keon Ellis SAC 3.5 1.5 0.7
18 Chris Duarte SAC 3.4 1.4 0.9
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.3 1.8 0.9
20 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.3 1.2 0.8
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.3 3.5 0.6
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.5 0.6
23 JaVale McGee SAC 2.9 2.6 0.3
24 Braxton Key DEN 2.6 1.3 0.7
25 Jay Huff DEN 2.4 1.1 0.5
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.2 0.7 0.8
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.0 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.