NBA games

SA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
93–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA3219142893
DAL25313228116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DAL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 27 26 9 5
Malaki Branham 21 19 3 1
Devin Vassell S 31 11 4 6
Jeremy Sochan S 25 10 4 1
Blake Wesley 28 9 1 6
Zach Collins 21 6 12 4
Julian Champagnie S 18 5 2 1
Tre Jones S 20 4 4 2
Keldon Johnson 20 3 2 0
Cedi Osman 18 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 33 34 9 7
Luka Doncic S 31 27 9 8
Jaden Hardy 20 13 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 23 10 10 2
Josh Green S 18 8 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 8 2 5
Dereck Lively II 17 8 5 1
Dwight Powell 8 3 2 0
P.J. Washington S 28 3 6 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 5 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Vassell SA
14%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
4 Josh Green DAL
10%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 33.7 9.9 10.5
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 28.2 4.9 6.7
3 Devin Vassell SA 23.5 4.6 4.1
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.3 10.2 4.9
5 P.J. Washington DAL 17.9 5.1 2.5
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.7 3.8 1.9
7 Josh Green DAL 14.4 4.0 3.0
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.3 7.8 2.2
9 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 5.5 1.9
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.9 10.7 1.6
11 Tre Jones SA 12.4 3.4 7.0
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.6 8.2 1.4
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 2.1 2.2
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.2 2.9 1.5
15 Cedi Osman SA 7.1 2.7 1.5
16 Zach Collins SA 6.9 3.7 2.1
17 Julian Champagnie SA 5.8 3.4 1.5
18 Blake Wesley SA 5.8 1.7 3.9
19 Malaki Branham SA 5.2 1.7 1.7
20 Devonte' Graham SA 3.9 1.6 1.7
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 2.2 0.6
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.0 1.1 0.5
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 1.9 0.6
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.9 3.6 1.3
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.7 1.5 0.6
26 Brandon Williams DAL 2.4 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.