NBA games

WSH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
126–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH26343828126
NO31373134133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NO
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 40 43 15 3
Corey Kispert 32 20 4 6
Jordan Poole S 35 19 5 6
Marvin Bagley III S 30 14 10 2
Tyus Jones S 40 14 2 15
Landry Shamet 17 8 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 27 6 3 1
Richaun Holmes 11 2 1 1
Delon Wright 3 0 0 0
Eugene Omoruyi 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 34 36 6 8
CJ McCollum S 33 26 3 6
Brandon Ingram S 35 18 3 8
Trey Murphy III 31 13 5 3
Naji Marshall 24 13 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 15 10 5 3
Jose Alvarado 22 7 3 3
Herbert Jones S 27 6 6 1
Larry Nance Jr. 19 4 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 Marvin Bagley III WSH
13%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
9%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
38%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 25.3 6.4 6.7
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.0 5.8 5.8
3 Deni Avdija WSH 18.0 7.0 3.7
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.0 4.7 4.0
5 Tyus Jones WSH 14.6 3.3 9.2
6 Herbert Jones NO 13.7 4.1 2.7
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.7 9.5 2.5
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.4 7.9 1.7
9 Corey Kispert WSH 12.3 3.5 2.0
10 Trey Murphy III NO 11.9 4.0 1.3
11 Jordan Poole WSH 11.8 3.1 4.5
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.8 4.0 1.7
13 Matt Ryan NO 8.9 2.3 1.4
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.0 2.3 1.6
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.6 4.7 2.2
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.3 2.8 1.9
17 Landry Shamet WSH 5.6 1.6 1.0
18 Jared Butler WSH 5.0 1.2 1.9
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.7 2.1 1.0
20 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.5 3.0 0.8
21 Delon Wright WSH 3.5 1.6 1.1
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.2 2.3 0.8
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 2.1 0.5
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.5 1.8 0.4
25 E.J. Liddell NO 2.2 1.0 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 0.8 0.3
27 Johnny Davis WSH 1.2 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.