NBA games

HOU @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU21283232113
MEM36222637121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MEM
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Holiday 30 19 2 1
Dillon Brooks S 36 19 10 2
Amen Thompson S 34 19 12 2
Alperen Sengun S 34 19 5 6
Jeff Green 16 10 4 0
Nate Hinton 15 10 3 2
Jae'Sean Tate 15 7 6 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 6 11 1
Jalen Green S 23 4 3 3
Nate Williams 3 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson 24 20 9 0
Luke Kennard S 30 19 2 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 18 2 3
Lamar Stevens 20 14 8 1
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 12 8 7
Jordan Goodwin 24 10 3 3
John Konchar S 20 8 3 2
Derrick Rose 16 8 4 3
Santi Aldama S 22 7 5 4
Ziaire Williams 22 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Santi Aldama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Santi Aldama makes 24-foot three pointer (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
3 Jalen Green HOU
14%
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
11%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 John Konchar MEM
8%
10 Jeff Green HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 26.3 5.2 3.9
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.8 6.7 4.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.0 9.6 5.6
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.8 5.8 4.9
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.9 3.5 2.1
6 Luke Kennard MEM 13.5 2.6 4.0
7 GG Jackson MEM 13.5 4.2 1.6
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.2 6.6 1.8
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.3 5.3 3.0
10 Amen Thompson HOU 10.7 8.1 3.9
11 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.1 2.3 2.8
12 John Konchar MEM 8.0 6.0 2.4
13 Derrick Rose MEM 6.7 1.7 3.4
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.2 2.4 1.5
15 Jeff Green HOU 5.7 2.6 1.3
16 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.1 2.9 0.7
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.1 1.6 0.7
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 2.3 1.0
19 Nate Williams HOU 3.8 1.5 0.6
20 Yuta Watanabe MEM 3.2 1.3 0.5
21 Jock Landale HOU 2.5 2.7 0.6
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.2 0.4
23 Nate Hinton HOU 2.3 1.2 0.4
24 Jordan Goodwin MEM 1.9 0.7 0.4
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.