NBA games

IND @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
127–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31343626127
TOR35363222125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home TOR
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 23 5 7
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 21 4 12
Obi Toppin 25 15 5 0
Isaiah Jackson S 32 15 11 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 14 3 5
Doug McDermott 23 13 1 0
Ben Sheppard 21 10 5 0
Aaron Nesmith S 17 8 2 1
T.J. McConnell 16 6 1 6
Oscar Tshiebwe 3 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 29 12 8
RJ Barrett S 34 23 9 3
Jakob Poeltl S 30 19 11 3
Immanuel Quickley S 35 14 6 7
Bruce Brown 26 12 3 3
Chris Boucher 11 10 4 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 30 8 6 3
Gradey Dick 21 7 1 1
Ochai Agbaji 5 3 0 1
Jordan Nwora 5 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
3 Aaron Nesmith IND
12%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
12%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
7 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
10 Isaiah Jackson IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.7 6.3 4.8
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.0 6.7 4.0
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.4 6.8 6.5
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.9 3.7 8.9
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 16.7 5.4 3.1
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.6 3.1 5.8
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.5 9.5 2.1
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.0 2.9 5.9
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.7 4.2 2.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.3 2.6 1.5
11 Bruce Brown TOR 10.2 4.5 2.2
12 Kelly Olynyk TOR 9.9 4.6 3.7
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 3.0 5.6
14 Gradey Dick TOR 8.9 2.8 1.6
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.2 3.7 1.9
16 Jordan Nwora TOR 6.6 2.4 1.5
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.8 3.8 0.9
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.7 2.2 0.9
19 Doug McDermott IND 4.6 1.3 1.2
20 Chris Boucher TOR 4.6 3.1 0.5
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.2 1.7 0.8
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.0 1.7 0.8
23 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.3 1.5 0.5
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.4 0.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.