NBA games

CHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
105–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI32172729105
CLE25182837108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CLE
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 39 32 7 4
DeMar DeRozan S 41 24 2 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 12 4 2
Andre Drummond S 28 10 15 0
Alex Caruso 26 10 2 3
Nikola Vucevic S 39 9 8 1
Torrey Craig 22 8 5 0
Dalen Terry 7 0 0 2
Jevon Carter 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 30 6 7
Isaac Okoro 27 16 1 2
Evan Mobley S 31 14 9 0
Jarrett Allen S 35 13 10 3
Darius Garland S 31 12 1 7
Georges Niang 24 11 2 0
Max Strus S 30 7 3 3
Caris LeVert 23 5 4 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Coby White CHI
10%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.0 5.4 7.0
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.1 4.6 5.0
3 Coby White CHI 23.0 5.1 6.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.1 10.1 3.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.1 11.2 2.2
6 Darius Garland CLE 16.1 2.4 6.0
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.0 3.2 3.4
8 Evan Mobley CLE 15.5 9.2 2.9
9 Caris LeVert CLE 11.9 3.8 4.9
10 Max Strus CLE 10.4 5.0 3.3
11 Alex Caruso CHI 9.9 5.0 3.1
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.6 3.0 1.6
13 Andre Drummond CHI 8.4 8.4 0.7
14 Torrey Craig CHI 6.8 4.0 1.1
15 Georges Niang CLE 6.6 3.0 1.4
16 Ty Jerome CLE 6.5 2.0 3.6
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.0 1.2 1.2
18 Sam Merrill CLE 5.0 1.2 1.0
19 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.0 1.0 0.5
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 1.6 1.0
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.5 1.4 0.5
22 Zhaire Smith CLE 2.4 1.7 0.7
23 Damian Jones CLE 2.3 1.6 0.6
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.