NBA games

BKN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
86–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN1517233186
BOS30383335136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home BOS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trendon Watford 26 15 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 26 10 4 4
Keon Johnson 12 9 1 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 7 3 2
Keita Bates-Diop 12 7 1 0
Dennis Smith Jr. 18 7 0 5
Nic Claxton S 21 6 8 3
Cam Thomas S 25 5 1 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 14 4 1 0
Dennis Schroder S 18 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 32 28 4 3
Derrick White S 28 27 5 4
Jayson Tatum S 28 20 7 9
Kristaps Porzingis S 16 15 5 1
Sam Hauser S 29 14 5 2
Oshae Brissett 20 11 4 5
Neemias Queta 13 8 4 0
Luke Kornet 19 8 8 3
Jrue Holiday S 24 3 4 5
Svi Mykhailiuk 13 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
17%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
3 Jrue Holiday BOS
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
6 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
10 Dennis Schroder BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
8%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.8 9.4 6.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 25.0 4.3 4.1
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 23.2 7.3 2.3
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.0 3.8 3.9
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.7 4.8 5.5
6 Derrick White BOS 13.8 3.6 4.4
7 Dennis Schroder BKN 13.2 3.7 5.2
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.3 10.5 2.1
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.2 4.1 2.7
10 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.1 6.3 1.6
11 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.9 2.0 1.7
12 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.6 3.8 3.6
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.2 2.6 1.6
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.1 4.2 1.8
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.0 2.2 1.0
16 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.9 3.2 1.5
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.7 0.7
18 Keon Johnson BKN 4.6 1.2 0.8
19 Noah Clowney BKN 3.9 2.3 0.4
20 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 3.7 1.8 0.6
21 Trendon Watford BKN 3.4 1.4 0.7
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.4 2.3 0.9
23 Neemias Queta BOS 2.9 3.2 0.3
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.9 0.8 0.4
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.